In the middle of August 2018, floods devastated the entire state of Kerala. The destruction caused by non-stop rains is presented by “Frontline” fortnightly dated 14 September 2018 as follows:
“With terrifying force and spread that Kerala had not seen in nearly a century, the skies opened up in August, unleashing torrential rain and causing floods that left no part of the State untouched. The highlands, midlands and coastal plains, the three geographic regions of the State, were all devastated.
Heavy bouts of rain battered all 14 districts from the beginning of the monsoon in June, and grew in intensity after July, triggering catastrophic floods a series of landslides and heart-wrenching scenes on the hills of the Western Ghats range, which runs along the entire length of the State.
Most stretches of the ghat roads and resorts, hotels, houses and other buildings and bridges on the slopes disappeared in the wink of an eye as tonnes of mud and rock and water slid down the denuded hillsides. Rescue efforts were hampered by the heavy rains, which rendered roads in many areas inaccessible.
Villages at the foothills, a number of them located near granite quarries, also bore the brunt of the rain. The rivers broke free, changing course in all directions under the darkness of those cursed nights, pulling down hillsides and ransacking entire communities.
In the heavily populated midlands and coastal plains, rivers in spate caused catastrophic flash floods and altered the geography at places refusing to disappear as if reclaiming their riverbeds and floodplains. On roads and bridges and inside homes and neighbourhoods, the rivers deposited tonnes of plastic waste and other garbage and thick silt and mud.
Much of Kerala went under water and thousands were forced to flee their homes. Water rose to the second floor of many households in cities and towns and the residents could only be rescued using boats.
Kerala is no stranger to floods but this was a disaster that had engulfed the entire State. The floods ravaged 774 of a total of 1,564 villages, directly affecting 54 lakh people out of the total estimated population of 3.5 crore. …
Much of Kerala was submerged, with large areas cut off completely from the rest of the world, without power, water, food or communication links, by the time the rain’s fury began to subside after August 17, 2018.
For lakhs of unsuspecting people who had never experienced such a phenomenon, the calamity began as a mind-numbing spectacle that was telecast live for hours. …For the first time in memory, the Sabarimala shrine became inaccessible to pilgrims. The pilgrimage itself was suspended.”
As all the five shutters of the Cheruthoni dam was opened after 26 years, letting out the waters of the huge Idukki reservoir into the downstream areas of the Periyar river (which is the longest in Kerala), there was water everywhere. “We can’t understand which one is river and which one is road.” That is how Rajesh S., a resident of Chengannur town in Kerala described the ground zero situation.
2.The triggers for the deluge in Kerala
2.1) What made this “abnormal” climatic episode deadly were the State’s faulty disaster responses- both short-term and long-term. Shockingly, the Central Water Commission (CWC), India’s only flood forecasting agency, does not have any flood forecasting system in Kerala. This deprives the people of the State any reliable way for flood preparedness.
Kerala is ecologically sensitive owing to the geography and topography of the region. Practically, the entire State is drainage medium for run-off from the Western Ghats towards the Arabian Sea. While rain is abundant across the State, the coastal regions, rather than the Western Ghats receive the bulk of the rainfall. But, this year there has been extremely heavy rainfall in the Ghats of Kerala and this is precisely what submerged the State. Between August 1 and August 15, the rainfall received in Idukki (with highest i.e., 17 reservoirs) and Palakkad (with second highest number of reservoirs) districts is 200% more than normal for the region!
2.2) The second trigger is total mis-management of the dam water. While the State was under a heavy spell of rain, the opening of all its dam gates aggravated an already out of control situation (due to huge rainfall). So, while the State was already flooded, 35 dams were discharging water, with all their gates opened at the last minute!
“The flood damages could have been reduced by 20 – 40% had the dams and reservoirs released the water slowly in the two week period when the rains had subsided. The State did not have an advanced warning system in place and released water from the dams only once the danger levels were reached” says Ashok Keshari of Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi.
As per the Crisis Management Plan for Dam Failures, prepared by the National Committee on Dam Safety, states are supposed to come out with their Emergency Action Plans (EAPS) for every large dam. It’s also shocking that CWC had prepared the guidelines for “Development and Implementation of EAPS for Dams” in May 2006 and had circulated it to State governments for action. According to a recent Comptroller and Auditor General report, out of 61 dams in Kerala, none had EAPS or operation and maintenance manuals!
2.3) But, before the dam water made the State into a sea, the damage to local ecology done over the years had already caused much devastation! Scanning “situation reports” of the State’s disaster management control room, one pattern clearly emerges: damage to life and property was more in certain areas. These are areas earmarked as ecologically sensitive and have always been cautioned on landslides triggered by rains. In the second and third week of August, mudslides and landslides were reported in 211 places across the State, and this is attributed to increasing stone quarrying activity and large-scale deforestation.
Idukki and Wayanad are considered among the most heavily-forested districts in the State. However, both have seen serious decline in forest cover between 2011 and 2017 (20% and 11% respectively). This is also the reason these two districts reported the maximum damages due to flash floods and landslides.
3.Kerala Flood Disaster was predicted: “….the river reclaims its natural boundaries.”
Dr. Muralee Thummarukudy, Chief Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations Environment Programme, is from Kerala. After the 2013 Uttarkhand flood disaster he predicted similar flood disaster in Kerala as follows:
“(An) astounding quantity of water rushes through the rivers at once during floods. It could raise water levels to unprecedented heights and in the case of rivers that do not usually flood, this could impact places far away from them. But such floods are rare and happen only once in 50or 100 years. That, exactly, is the problem too. With the passing of generations, people forget how far the river will swell, but nature never forgets. Even after decades or centuries, the river reclaims its natural boundaries. By that time, humans may have built a resort or a hotel there, and all of that will be destroyed. Remember the “Great Floods”. …It happened in July 1924. Most parts of Thiruvithamcode went under water and there were large-scale losses….but most people in Kerala today have forgotten it. After the dams were built in Idukki, people are vying to build “beautiful” houses on the banks of Periyar river.”
“It is in those parts that were submerged during the 1924 flood that we have built establishments ranging from pesticide factories to airports as part our “development” during the last 50 years. Statistically, it is a fact that such rains will occur again, and these places too, will be submerged again. So, before we build more flats or supermarkets, it would be wise to check whether such places were submerged in floods earlier.”
Based on his experience in dealing with many disasters in other parts of the world, he had cautioned about devastating floods and landslides in Kerala: “The disasters due to floods are further worsened by landslides and debris flow near the origin of the river. Both are man-made disasters caused by people occupying steep hill slopes, building roads and undertaking construction there. These actions invite disasters. In Kerala, in addition to all these crimes there is extensive quarrying too.”
He also suggested precautionary measures to disaster risk reduction by which one could continue to develop but still reduce the risks from floods: “What needs to be done is to reserve enough land for the river to expand during flood times. That means, not to build houses near the river but reserve them for agricultural purposes, and declare in advance that farmers will be compensated for any loss due to flood, if at all it occurs…”
4.Measures for flood disaster risk reduction
Three important measures which emerge from the above mentioned facts and narration are:
1) Formulating and implementing risk-sensitive land use planning that recognises the natural boundaries of rivers in the State.
2) Following all the “Environment Protection Laws” and the rules in letter and spirit and ensuring that forests and hills in the catchment areas are protected.
3) Introducing new building technologies and materials that could minimise the damage by floods.
If these measures are implemented, by the government, authorities and people, flood disaster risk reduction can certainly be achieved.
5.Kodagu Flood Disaster
Three days of non-stop rain in August 2018 – That is what crippled Kodagu district of Karnataka and changed the face of the district forever.
In fact, rains received by Kodagu in the first three weeks of August broke 87-year-old record for rainfall in that month. Until 2018, highest rainfall for August was in 1931, when the district received 1,559 mm rainfall. But, during the 3-weeks period, it received 1,675 mm rainfall. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Bengaluru, 45% of the rain during that period fell on three consecutive days: August 15 (206 mm), August 16 (262 mm) and August 17 (300 mm).
In many areas, the extreme rainfall caused landslides which in turn forced streams to change course, causing immense damage and wiping 13 villages off the face of the land. The statistics present grim picture of the situation. Out of Kodagu’s 104 gram panchayats 34 (consisting about 200 villages) have been devastated. Eighteen people have lost their lives due to landslides and 39 are listed as missing. About 1,200 houses have collapsed. Nearly 2,200 km of village roads and 170 km of highways were damaged in the district. Almost 30 km long stretch of the Madikeri – Mangaluru National Highway between Madikeri to Sampaje is badly damaged.
About 3,000 acres of coffee estates has been washed away or damaged, as per preliminary estimate by Coffee Board officials. For one-month period agricultural activities have come to stand-still and this will drastically reduce coffee yields. Kodagu is the main coffee producing district of India. It produces about 1.2 lakh tonnes of coffee annually, which accounts for 40% of the total coffee produced in the country. Coffee Board officials have estimated that about 30,000 tonnes of coffee crop has been destroyed due to flood havoc. About 200 families whose major source of income was from coffee cultivation lost a portion of or their entire estates. Following cases indicate the extent of loss suffered by the coffee planters in Kodagu:
-Jaggaranda Kaverappa, a native of Iggodlu near Madapura in Somwarpet taluk said that his coffee estate has been reduced to nothing. His family has lost their 8-acre estate along with the house that stood in the middle of it.
-Vani (66) living in her 10-acre robusta coffee estate in Kandenakoli village (14 km from Madikeri) had to leave her house on the night of August 16 along with a few labourers. They trekked for about seven hours in pouring rain and mud route to finally reach a relief centre. Her entire estate is today covered in brown sludge and 40-year old coffee plants are all destroyed. Her home has collapsed and rosewood trees on the estate have been uprooted.
-Pavan Nanjappa, owner of Venkids Valley Estate has lost eight acres of his estate. Now, in that area there is only mud. In addition, he is worried about the fate of his bungalow which is located 160 feet above the area that was devastated.
-Pramod Kurien has lost 30 acres out of his 75-acre robusta coffee estate at Kallur. Three labour lines and staff quarters in his estate also have perished. He said, “The land value is gone. The top soil is gone. Hills have become valleys….will they facilitate the growth of coffee hereafterwards?....”
-M P Appachu Ranjan, MLA from Madikeri also lost 10 acres of his coffee estate in Hadageri.
6.Kodagu flood devastation aggravated by human interference
The report published in The Hindu dated 23rd September 2018, presents the highlights of two “reports” in which the experts state that while heavy rainfall was the trigger, human-induced land changes aggravated the devastation in Kodagu in August 2018.
While the Geological Survey of India (GSI) has tabulated 105 landslips in human-habited areas, a team from the World Resources Institute (WRI) used satellite imagery to enumerate at least 254 various landslip instances affecting 1,060 hectares (nearly 10.6 sq km) land.
6.1 Satellite Imagery Used: Using imagery from the Copernicus Sentinel satellites, Raj Bhagat Palanichamy, a Senior Project Associate at WRI India, and Samrat Basak, Director (Hydrology), WRI, counted the changes in landscapes and the crowns (the area from where soil has slipped) to determine the number and pattern in landslips. Not surprising, nearly four in five landslips are in areas with human habitation.
Total number of landslips and severe soil erosion sites: 254
Incidents in forest areas: 54 (21.2%)
Incidents in human-inhabited landscapes: 200 (79.8%)
These are concentrated around the twists and turns of the Harangi river as well as major roads that criss-cross the district. “The heavy rainfall caused landslips in forest areas too. But, these landslips are smaller in size than those in anthropogenic areas. Most probably, human-induced land changes have aggravated the situation” said Palanichamy. The course of the Harangi is flanked by high slopes, leading to more landslips, unlike the slopes around the Kaveri or the Lakshmanthirtha in the District, their analysis has found.
6.2 Recommendations not followed: Independently, GSI recently compiled a 150-page report of 105 landslips. Of this, researchers had visited 85 spots and found that a majority of these are along the lineament (a geographical feature which is an expression of faults and fold-aligned hills).
While heavy rainfall, was the trigger, lack of proper drainage, unscientific slope cutting for agriculture or road works, construction of houses close to slopes or natural streams, as well as geological causes, have been identified as having aggravated the situation.
These landslips were also found to be entirely within areas that were marked in GSI’s landslip susceptibility maps in 2014-15. The maps and reports had a list of recommendations involving slope stabilisation along roads and construction measures to ensure high slopes are protected. Most of these had not been followed.
6.3 Restrictions needed: “We have strongly recommended to the State government to have some legal restrictions and regulations in these landslip-prone areas. This is needed to ensure land use is not changed or new constructions are regulated” said K.V. Maruthi, geologist, GSI. Their investigation has found that in many human-inhabited areas the land-slips had led to a cascading effect.
7.Role of Valuers in Valuation of Agri. Land & Plantations in Flood-prone Areas
According to ecologist Madhav Gadgil “This could happen again.” Therefore, while arriving at the value of agricultural land and plantations in flood-prone areas, Valuers should consider the important factors (explained in this essay) which posed risk to the value of the property.
Imagine the situation, wherein the property valued as an asset worth lakhs or crores of rupees is not traceable or severely damaged resulting in very low market value. Even in Mangaluru, unprecedented rains were received on 29th May 2018, and flood water entered many houses in low-lying areas. In Chennai also, heavy rains caused havoc in November- December 2015 and life was crippled for a month and many houses, office-premises, buildings and structures were severely damaged.
It is the duty of Valuers to verify whether the property was submerged in floods earlier and mention the relevant facts in the Valuation Reports so as to justify the realistic value of the property. That approach will add value to our professional value.
(Paper presented at the Seminar on “Role of Valuers in the Changing Scenario” organised by Institution of Valuers – Mangaluru Branch on 6th October 2018)
Photo: Aerial view of a house cut off by flood at North Paravur near Kochi in Kerala
Courtesy: The Week, 2nd September 2018
-Addoor Krishna Rao
MBA, MA, BSc (Agri.), CAIIB, FIV